• Global-scale climate impact functions: The relationship between climate forcing and impact
    Author: Arnell N W, Brown S, Gosling S N, Hinkel J, Huntingford C, Lloyd-Hughes B, Lowe J A, Osborn T, Nicholls R J, and Zelazowski P
    Source: Climatic Change 134(3): p.475–487
    Keywords: climate forcing
    Year: 2016
    Author Affiliation: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, UK
    Abstract:Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem, and built environment sectors. Pattern scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level is used to construct sea level rise scenarios.

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