• The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment
    Author: Arnell N W, Brown S, Gosling S N, Gottschalk P, Hinkel J, Huntingford C, Lloyd-Hughes B, Lowe J A, Nicholls R J, Osborn T J, and Osborne T M
    Source: Climatic Change 134(3): p.457–474
    Year: 2016
    Author Affiliation: Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, UK
    Abstract:The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonized set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment, and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators.

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